{"id":41,"date":"2026-05-12T10:04:34","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T10:04:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/northcarolinamovingjournal.com\/?p=41"},"modified":"2026-05-12T10:04:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T10:04:34","slug":"will-map-mayhem-decide-ncs-midterms-one-national-pollster-says-not-if-democrats-stay-on-message","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/northcarolinamovingjournal.com\/?p=41","title":{"rendered":"Will map mayhem decide NC\u2019s midterms? One national pollster says not if Democrats stay on message."},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Since the U.S. Supreme Court delivered a late April decision weakening the Voting Rights Act, several Republican-led states have been rushing to redraw congressional maps ahead of the midterm elections. Tennessee lawmakers pushed through a map so bold last week, it could deliver a 9-0 Republican advantage to the state\u2019s congressional delegation.<\/p>\n

Read more The message NC public school educators desperately want budget writers to hear<\/a><\/p>\n

The winner-takes-all approach had elected Democrats concerned last week at the NewDeal Forum\u2019s 2026 Summit in Raleigh. The left-leaning national nonprofit is focused on economic growth and creating sustainable progress in areas like housing, transit, childcare and voting rights.<\/p>\n

Tom Jensen, director of Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling, told those attending the conference that increasing frustration with the economy is what is driving voters this year.<\/p>\n

A of 680 registered voters finds Americans deeply dissatisfied with the economy. Forty-three percent said they are falling behind economically, while just 13% say they are getting ahead. At the same time, 43% rated the economy as \u201cpoor.\u201d Nearly 30% said groceries are the biggest pressure on households, with 1 in 4 saying gas prices and energy costs are a top financial worry.<\/p>\n

Jensen said the poll offers more sobering news for Republicans hoping President Donald Trump can persuade voters that he can fix the affordability crisis.<\/p>\n

\u201cBasically, [Trump\u2019s] numbers right now are the worst we\u2019ve found for him the entire decade that he\u2019s been on the scene,\u201d said Jensen. \u201cHe\u2019s more unpopular now than he ever was during his first term.\u201d<\/p>\n

Jensen said about 20% of Trump voters from 2024 are no longer happy with the job he\u2019s doing. The poll found 27% of Republicans surveyed felt their own family was falling behind economically.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe actually had one poll recently where only 67% of Trump\u2019s voters approved of the job he\u2019s doing. In some areas, he\u2019s losing as many as a third of the people who voted for him last time around,\u201d said Jensen.<\/p>\n

Pain at the pump<\/h4>\n

Jensen said with the midterms in mind, Democrats need to stay laser-focused on gas prices, groceries and rising health care costs, and not try to respond to every political story of the day.<\/p>\n

Jane Flegal, a senior fellow with the Searchlight Institute, a left-of-center DC-think tank, noted that Democrats internally are divided on how to best regain the public\u2019s trust on economic issues. She asked Jensen whether a populist anti-corporate message or a more pro-growth, pro-business message would be more appealing to voters.<\/p>\n

Jensen said most voters are not interested in an intellectual argument. They just want their financial picture to improve.<\/p>\n

\u201cI hate to dumb things down so much \u2014 gas prices are out of control. There\u2019s your story,\u201d said Jensen.<\/p>\n

Likewise, Jensen said the issue of voting rights and the recent gerrymandering of maps may not be a winning issue with voters this fall.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe impact of the Supreme Court decision last week will be bad. Republicans are going to win more congressional seats this year than they otherwise would have, but I will say they may end up drawing themselves some districts that they don\u2019t do as well in,\u201d said Jensen.<\/p>\n

On the generic ballot, Democrats nationally hold a four-point lead, 46% to 42%, with 12% undecided. Jenson said if that 12% breaks more for Democrats than Republicans, it\u2019s conceivable that Democrats could even gain control of the North Carolina House this year.<\/p>\n

Read more Southern Coalition for Social Justice\u2019s Chris Shenton on the gutting of the Voting Rights Act<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThis is about the first time that I would have said that in the last 16 years,\u201d said Jensen. \u201cI actually think the recent spike in gas prices has done more than anything [in shifting voter attitudes.]\u201d<\/p>\n

North Carolina\u2019s U.S. Senate candidates lean in on affordability<\/h4>\n

The high cost of living has become a recurring theme in North Carolina\u2019s closely watched U.S. Senate race.<\/p>\n

Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley acknowledged during a recent appearance on the Ruthless podcast that \u201caffordability is a very real issue.\u201d Whatley said his approach to tax policy and regulatory policy would help drive costs lower for consumers.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf somebody gets to keep more of their money, things are more affordable,\u201d Whatley said.<\/p>\n

Former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, is campaigning on the slogan \u201cMake Stuff Cost Less.\u201d He has hosted 10 events since March to talk directly with voters about his ideas to lower the cost of food and groceries, health care, utilities, housing and childcare.<\/p>\n

\n

New Polling: Increasingly pessimistic, North Carolinians favor more guardrails on presidency<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n