Gov. Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by four percentage points in a new poll from Public Policy Polling, which shows a race that remains competitive as voters begin to tune into the campaign.
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While national attention has increasingly turned to high-profile Senate races in Maine and Texas, the newly released poll suggests that Whatley, the former RNC and NC GOP chairman, still has an opportunity to contest a race that forecasters say favors Cooper.
The PPP poll, released on Monday, surveyed 759 North Carolina voters earlier this month and found Cooper leading the race by 48% to 44%, with a margin of error of +/-3.6%. That’s a slight increase in support for Cooper from PPP’s March survey, which showed him leading by 47% to 44%.
Both surveys are relative outliers, as most polls this year have shown Cooper with a substantial lead over Whatley — often in the double digits, a rarity in North Carolina’s perennially razor-thin statewide elections.
Pollsters and other political observers have said they believe the race is likely to tighten by November as voters flock to their party’s respective candidate.
“We tend to see voters go into their respective political corners by the time we reach the fall,” said Catawba College politics professor Michael Bitzer in an interview last month.
Cooper campaign manager Jeff Allen said in a statement that the campaign has been consistently treating the Senate race as a tight contest.
“A Democrat has not won statewide federal office in North Carolina in nearly two decades,” Allen said. “We know this race will be very close, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate.”
Whatley spokesman DJ Griffin did not respond to a request for comment.
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The first New York Times-Siena College poll of the 2026 midterm elections, published July 1, showed Cooper with the largest lead of any Democratic candidate running for a GOP-held seat this November, with 50% of the vote against Whatley’s 43%.
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But despite Whatley falling further behind in PPP’s polling, the survey’s other findings suggest his campaign may be gaining traction.
One of Whatley’s primary struggles has been a lack of name recognition: having never held elected office before, he had little statewide profile among voters before jumping into the race. That seems to be improving, with 69% of voters familiar with him, up from 64% in the March poll.
Unfortunately for Whatley, the more voters get to know him, the less they like him, according to the PPP poll. The survey found that 38% of voters view Whatley unfavorably, up from 33% in March. Meanwhile, the share of voters who view him favorably fell from 32% to 31%.
The survey may indicate that Cooper’s early advertising forays, buoyed by a large fundraising lead over Whatley, are beginning to pay off. The increase in name recognition for Whatley was entirely among Democrats and Independents — Republicans were actually less likely to be familiar with Whatley in the July survey than in the March survey.
But the Whatley campaign’s approach, which has consisted almost entirely of attacks on Cooper, may also be paying dividends. Asked their views on Cooper, 45% of respondents reported an unfavorable opinion, up from 40% in March.
Independents, who will be critical to the race’s outcome, appear to be souring on both candidates. Whatley is viewed unfavorably by 41% of independents, up from 35%. And the share of independents who disapprove of Cooper has increased even more, from 36% in March to 47% in July.
The PPP poll found other critical North Carolina races are likely to be neck-and-neck.
State Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls leads 44% to 42% against her Republican challenger, former state Rep. Sarah Stevens. All state Court of Appeals races were within a 3% margin. And in general, 46% of voters said they would likely vote for Democrats in state legislative contests while 44% said they would vote for Republicans.
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Full results from the July PPP poll .
